The agreement drew criticisms as soon as it was published, including some by the CPN-UML party’s own senior leaders. Indeed, CPN-UML has been neutral since the beginning of the PM election advocating for national consensus government. However, the PM candidate of Nepali Congress has remained in the PM race and Nepali Congress has recently declared that it does not intend to withdraw its PM candidate. The NC has successfully completed its 12th convention. Many new faces and young leaders were elected to the party’s central committee, and the former acting president was elected president. This had created hope amongst some that the NC would come out with fresh and new energy for tackling the current deadlock.

Chairperson of the Constituent Assembly has said that only after the withdrawal of both candidates for the PM post can a new process for electing a PM be started. It is not possible to go to the new process if the one candidate remains in the PM candidate. It is noted that Mr. Dahal has only declared the withdraw of his PM candidacy, but not withdrawn formally or officially.

Different opinions exist about the PM election, after seven rounds of failed attempts. Some are advocating for amendment of the constitution to settle this problem and some are opposed to amendments, arguing that it is not the appropriate method to resolve the crisis. The interim constitution-2063 has only two provisions for formation of the government – i) consensus method and ii) majority method through voting in the parliament. The only option left is the majority method through voting in the parliament since the political parties have been unable to form the government through consensus.

The passion of the Nepalese people for the process has disappeared. The ray of hope for a logical conclusion for the peace process is very thin. I have been visiting some of the eastern parts of Nepal from the Terai/Madhesh to the hills, and I can reflect that the people are tired with the politicians’ behaviour and the dirty politics we have seen. People can only pray for no further deterioration in their own lives. I am writing this update from the Terai/Madhesh. Ordinary people are barely concerned at all with the PM election. And personally I am losing hope for a timely writing of the constitution and logical end, and pray that the 8th round of the PM election can be successful.

Ambika Pokhrel, Nepal Local Correspondent, 25 September 2010

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On the one hand, the UCPN (Maoist) is claiming that the consensus government should be under its leadership on the grounds that it is the largest party in the Constituent Assembly (CA). On the other hand, the other two political parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist and Leninist (CPN-UML) oppose the demands of the UCPN (Maoist), saying that the first point from the May 28 three-point agreement between the three major political parties has not been implemented by the Maoist side. The first point of the agreement is about the remaining tasks of peace process, including the integration and management of the Maoist’s combatants.

CPN-UML is on the view that it has to lead the new government, claiming that NC has the President and Chairperson of the CA constitutional committee, while the UCPN (Maoist) has combatants under its control. Most of the CPN-UML leaders claim that in keeping its own military, the UCPN (Maoist) can’t lead the new government. Therefore, they are asserting that their party has to lead the new consensus government if it is to happen. If the consensus government can’t be formed, the CPN-UML has to form the majority government under its leadership. Some of the leaders are suggesting that the party has to request that the president extends the time for formation of the consensus government, and also allows for the current caretaker government until the new government is formed.

It seems that NC leaders are reluctant to lead the new government until the party’s general convention, scheduled to be held in August. Some of the leaders are suggesting that NC does not have to take the government’s leadership, arguing that it will affect the result of the party’s leadership, that has to be elected by the convention. Other leading NC figures are demanding that the NC gets leadership of the new government, since we have already experienced two parties leadership of the government, and those were UCPN (Maoist) and CPN-UML. They are claiming that it is now the turn of the NC.

All this means that, already over a month since the extension of the term of the Constituent Assembly, not a single step of progress has been made in the Nepal Peace Process. The time limit for the formation of a consensus government looks likely to end today without success. This will leave only the possibility of another majority government to follow on from the two failed majority governments of the past two years. This leaves the future of the peace process and constitution writing very uncertain indeed.

Ambika Pokhrel, Nepal Local Correspondent, 7 July 2010

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The major political parties–UCPN-Maoist, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have all hardened their positions. They have asserted their conditions for either changing the government or for extending the Constituent Assembly term.

The CPN-UML has asserted that there are six conditions put before the UCPN-Maoist for the formation of a national consensus government, and these conditions also deserve support from the Nepali Congress (NC) party:

1. Immediate beginning of the process of integration and rehabilitation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA – the army of CPN-M) and bringing the PLA under the control of the government’s special committee and categorizing them into separate cantonment for the purpose of integration and rehabilitation;
2. Finalizing the exact number of the PLA who want to integrate in the security forces;
3. Disbanding of the paramilitary structure of the Maoist Young Communist League (YCL);
4. Returning the seized property during the insurgency;
5. Formation of the state restructure commission, disappearance commission and truth and reconciliation commission; and
6. Finalizing the structure and power sharing of the national consensus government.

On the other hand the UCPN-Maoist has put forward two conditions before the ruling parties for extending the time of the Constituent Assembly which will expire on May 28. Those are:

1. Dissolving of the government; and
2. Returning to the politics of the consensus (amendment to the Interim Constitution replacing the current majority system with the previous consensus system for sharing power and conducting state business).

Besides asserting the conditions, the UCPN-Maoist have cancelled their planned programmes including nationwide training to the Maoist cadres from May 18 and mass meeting in Kathmandu on May 25 May. In addition to these, the party has warned that it will make public the “people’s federal democratic constitution” on May 29 on the occasion of the Republican Day.

In the light of the conditions advocated by the major political parties, it is also likely that the term of the Constituent Assembly may not be extended. This indicates the worse case scenario in which the political crisis will be deepen and the probability of returning to violence becomes higher.

In case the time of the Constituent Assembly is not extended, Nepal may become the ‘failed state’ that many people already warned about.

Ambika Pokhrel, Nepal Local Correspondent, 18 May 2010

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The UCPN-M not only withdrew the general strike but indirectly claimed that the indefinite general strike had not been done the proper way or at the right time. The chairperson of the Maoist party, Prachanda, has apologized in the interaction programme with the intellectuals and the citizens of Kathmandu, especially for the speech during the strike in which the middle class people of Kathmandu were targeted, when it was stated that the “neat and clean urbanites humiliated the shabbily-dress and dirty rural folks”. The Maoists party thought that the middle class people of Kathmandu did not support to the strike and engaged to the activities to defy the strike. The party itself has realized that its popularity and support from Kathmandu has decreased.

Meetings and talks among the political parties have been resumed after the strike. Nepali Congress (NC), one of the ruling parties, is very notably holding meetings with the Maoists party at various levels, including with senior leaders.  The meetings and the talks are surrounded among the major issues –

1. extension of the Constituent Assembly term;
2. People’s Liberation Army (PLA – army of the CPN-M) integration and rehabilitation and;
3. power sharing (formation of a national consensus government).

The NC and CPN-UML are also raising other issues including dismantled of the semi-armed structure of the YCL (Young Communist League-a youth organization of the Maoists) and return of the captured properties. Meanwhile, NC has asked for a clear roadmap and plan for the PLA integration and rehabilitation to the Maoists including the number of PLA to integrate in the security forces given the two days timeframe.

However, the deadlock of the political development is not only PLA integration and rehabilitation but also down sizing and democratization of the Nepal army as laid out in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). There are currently about one hundred thousand Nepal soldiers in Nepal. Unless these issues are solved then the constitution making process will always be in the shadows. These issues have been dominating the peace process and constitution-making process since the beginning.

It seems that the UCPN-M has shown flexibility for negotiation by calling off an indefinite general strike. The party already showed indication of flexibility for negotiation forwarding three main points:

1. YCL barracks are removed within 4-5 days;
2. those who want to integrate in the security forces and those who want to integrate in society are separated in the different camps within a month; and
3. to complete integration process within four months.

These above indicate that the UCPN-M is losing negotiation power after the recent indefinite general strike. In the mean time NC and CPN-UML are showing their willingness to negotiate to address the current political deadlock. It clearly shows that the new constitution will not be written within timeframe that is May 14. Therefore, settlement of the current political deadlock through negotiation among the political parties should be before this time.

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Some legal and constitutional experts have expressed their views that extension of the CA term is unconstitutional, claiming that the CA should be automatically dissolved after May 28. While some other experts have expressed that the CA term can be extended on the ground that the mandate for CA lasts until the creation of the new constitution. However, those who are against for extending the term are not proposing any options for way out after May 28.

The provision of term of the CA in the Interim Constitution of Nepal, 2007 is:
“Unless dissolved earlier pursuant to a resolution passed by the Constituent Assembly, the term of the Constituent Assembly shall be two years after the date on which the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly is held. … … … Provided that if the making of constitution cannot be completed by the reason of the proclamation of as State of Emergency in the country, the Constituent Assembly may, by a resolution to that effect, extend its term for an additional period not exceeding six months.”

With uncertainty over whether a new constitution will exist by the May 28 deadline, the political parties have at least started listening to each other to minimize differences and to avert possible crises. The meeting of the High level Political Mechanism (HLPM), represented by the three major political parties took place on Wednesday, April 21 and agreed to move ahead with consensus and discussed the possibility of breaking the deadlock through a “package deal” of contentious issues. Proposed by the UCPN-Maoist, the package deal will incorporate all major issues associated with the peace process and the new constitution including formation of the new government, integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, structure of the federation, and the forms of governance in the new constitution. The UCPN-Maoists has asserted its position that it would not agree to extend the CA term unless the current government resigned. The meeting concluded only reaching an agreement to discuss the package deal in the next meeting on Saturday, April 24.

The recent, and ongoing, armed training by the Maoists party to their cadres in different parts of the country has raised serious concern and drew criticisms In the HLPM meeting, NC and CPN-UML have demanded military training stop as a condition of discussing the package deal. Some ministers of the both parties also claimed that the training and demonstration have violated the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Maoist leaders however said that the training is not armed but a part of regular physical exercise conducted to keep their cadres active and physically fit. The general population is also worried about the activities of the Maoists raising question about security.

In fact the Nepalese people have not in the mood to go for more elections, just two years after the last vote was held, to a CA that has yet to deliver it’s core responsibility and draft a new constitution. The people have not yet lost the hope for a logical end of the peace process even though frustration towards the political parties has been raised everyday.

Posted by Ambika Pokhrel, Local Correspondent for Nepal, 22 April 2010

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1. Review of past agreements
2. Building the environment of trust and confidence
3. The move of the President for restoration of the Chief of Army and subsequent political deadlock
4. Integration of People’s Liberation Army (PLA-Maoist Combatants)
5. Contentious issues in the Constituent Assembly
6. Power sharing (which indicates a change in the government).

The above critical issues have been interlinked with each other and those are the major issues for the peace process of Nepal. The HLPM is led by the President of the Nepali Congress Party G. P. Koirala in which chairperson UCPN (Maoist) Puspa Kamal Dahal “Prachand” and Chairperson of CPN-UML J. N. Khanal are members. The current political dynamics indicate that the major critical political issues including the contentious issues in the Constituent Assembly (such as state structure, governance system etc.) are going to be dealt with by the HLPM. However, institutions such as the Constitutional Committee in the Constituent Assembly will not be discussed. The Constituent Assembly remains the legitimized institution where all negotiations should take place.

Mr B. Lynn Pascoe, the Under-Secretary General for Political Affairs at the United Nations, made a short visit to Kathmandu recently. His visit happened at an interesting time when the Nepali Congress and the government are criticizing the role of the UNMIN, particularly the integration of the PLA. The government is asking UNMIN to specify the exact number of PLA Maoist combatants inside the cantonments that they are monitoring. There have been suggestions that many of the combatants have already left the cantonments and money allocated for them by the government has gone to the Party’s account – a charge the Maoists deny. The government has stopped the salary for the combatants for the last two months, arguing that the salary should be directly deposited to the combatants’ personal account.

Concluding his visit in Kathmandu, Mr Pascoe criticised the political parties for blaming the UNMIN as a way of hiding their failures to manage peace process of Nepal. Referring to a clause in the tripartite agreement between the government of Nepal, the Maoist party and UNMIN, Mr Pascoe made clear that the UNMIN cannot share information about the number of Maoist combatants inside the cantonments.

From time to time, the Nepalese army is making a political statement or taking a political stand. This time the army issued an official statement clarifying their position regarding the issue of integration of Maoists. They stated that the are against the idea of integration of the PLA on the grounds that the integration of politically indoctrinated PLA combatants to the Nepali Army may lead to disintegration of the country as well as severely damaging the “disciplined, professional, competitive and apolitical” force. However, the army also states that if the PLA combatants come on an individual basis and fulfill the standards required, there is no objection to them enlisting. Meanwhile, the UCPN (Maoist) party has seriously objected to the political statement by the military, warning that this is a conspiracy to end the peace process.

Despite the efforts of the HLPM, the current political deadlock remains. All the while, the time for making a new constitution passes by.

Ambika Pokhrel, Nepal Local Correspondent. 18 March 2010

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The High Level Political Mechanism (HPLM) was formed in the second week of January 2010 with the leaders of the major political parties of Nepal, namely the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), to settle the political impasse and to bring the peace process and constitution writing process back on track.  Later on the HPLM decided to include other parties, mainly Madhesh based, in the process as well. However, almost all meetings and efforts of the HPLM have not been effective yet. To give an example, the only conclusion of the last meeting of the HPLM was setting a date and agenda for the next meeting.

Now that the discharging of the disqualified Maoist combatants from the cantonments has recently been completed, some fundamental questions on the issues of integration of the Maoist combatants come up again. These include:

• whether to integrate them into the Nepalese army or other security forces;
• if integration is best before the promulgation of the new constitution or afterwards;
• how many of the Maoist combatants should be integrated into the security forces.

The Maoists have consistently claimed that the integration of ex-combatants should be into the Nepalese army after the promulgation of the new constitution. The Prime Minister has proposed that 3,000 of the 19,000 combatants should be integrated into the security forces before the promulgation of the new constitution.

The Nepalese people from various fields, such as civil society, media, different professional groups, youth associations and student organisations are organizing different activities like rallies, conferences, speeches, sit-ins, fasting and the spreading posters, pamphlets and printings every day to create more pressure to write the new constitution within the given time frame. There are only 91 days left to promulgate the new constitution, and the slow progress is frustrating and worrying.

Ambika Pokhrel, Local Correspondent, 26 February 2010

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