Photo credit: Ronald Eikelenboom

Their achievement is impressive for a region which has barely any history of successful sportsmen. Rory McIlroy, who had snatched the US Open from the Americans just one year after his fellow-countryman Graeme McDowell had pulled the same trick, made particularly good copy, being a fresh faced, curly-headed Irish lad with a natural easy charm.

This sort of violence was supposed to be over. The peace settlement was signed in 1998, already thirteen years ago. Tellingly, this accord is known by two names: Catholics tend to call it the Good Friday Agreement while Protestants choose to shed its religious connotation and call it simply the Belfast Agreement. The process of implementing the Agreement (the simplest label) over the past 13 years has been zigzag and unsteady, but a new beginning came in May 2007 with the restoration of the devolved powers that had been suspended because of the years of political wrangling. When that parliament completed its mandate in May 2011 it was the first NI parliament to stay the course for 40 years.

“The week when Britain and Ireland grew up”

The elections which followed were conducted in reasonable good humour and with the confidence that this parliament will also serve it its full term. It was in the light of such success that the British monarch, Queen Elizabeth, chose to make her first ever visit to Dublin. The visit, seen to be of huge symbolic importance, was an unqualified success. In the briefings before it began the Department of Foreign Affairs said that 1,200 journalists and 120 photographers had been given accreditation. Towards the end of the four day stay, they were asking historians to bring the additional depth of perspective the occasion seemed to demand. The visit was seen not just as the ceremonial moment could act as the full stop to mark the end of the Northern Ireland peace process, but as the symbolic end of 800 years of enmity between Britain and Ireland. The respected Irish Times columnist Fintan O’Toole headed an article on 22 May ‘The Week When Britain and Ireland grew up‘.

Why then were they rioting on the streets of Belfast one month later?  And which image presents the more significant reality – the Queen shaking hands for the first time with the President of Ireland, or the rioters hurling the petrol bombs? The Northern Ireland peace process in its current phase can be difficult to read. At times it appears to be moving forward, at other times it seems to be going backwards. Most confusingly it can sometimes appear to be doing both at once, like those optical illusion drawings by Escher where the people who are ascending the staircase appear, mysteriously, to be descending at the same time.

Riot police - still a familiar sight in Belfast. Photo credit: Rusty Stewart

In order to get a better fix on the movements of the peace process a new project has been launched, under the title of the Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Survey. The sponsors of the project are the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, an English charity with a strong tradition of social research, its sister organisation, the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, which has invested heavily in peacebuilding in Northern Ireland, and thirdly, the Community Relations Council which since 1990 has been the key agency in cross-community work in Northern Ireland. The aim of the project is to issue an annual state-of-the-nation style report on the peace process. This will involve creating an indicator framework that will not only track political violence but also social cohesion, equality, and political progress. This type of deep analysis may help provide an understanding of whether the Agreement has delivered a permanent peace, or simply a generational truce in a centuries-old conflict. The first report will be issued in early 2012.

All enquiries to: pnolan@nicrc.org.uk

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News roundup

• As the dispute over oil continues, both Sudan and South Sudan have talked up the possibility of war. In a television broadcast, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir said the two countries were closer to war than peace. Earlier in the week, Sudan accused the South of “hostility”, and said it would hold the South responsible for any attacks on northern oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir talked of the need for a comprehensive agreement, which settled issues such as Abyei, if future conflict is to be avoided. South Sudan has rejected an African Union proposal which would see the South pay $6.5 billion to Sudan in oil transit fees. South Sudan shut down all oil production just over a week ago, a decision the UN says will increase South Sudan’s dependence on food aid.
• The US has accused Sudan of targeting civilians in airstrikes in South Kordofan. In a recent attack, a US-funded bible school was destroyed.
• The World Food Program says up to 500,000 refugees could flee Sudan for South Sudan if aid agencies are not allowed into border regions affected by conflict and food shortages.
• The UN says it is investigating reports of 80 people massacred by uniformed armed men in Warrap state, South Sudan. 37 people were killed during a firefight at a meeting held to resolve cattle disputes in Unity state.

News in detail

North-South relations

AFP: Sudan closer to war than peace with south: Bashir
04 Feb: Sudan is closer to war than peace with the breakaway state of South Sudan, President Omar al-Bashir said on national television on Friday, with a dispute over oil and other issues stoking tensions. Read more

AFP: South Sudan warns of war without ‘comprehensive’ deal
02 Feb: The president of South Sudan warned on Thursday of renewed conflict with former foes in north Sudan if bitter oil negotiations do not include a deal on other key issues, including the contested Abyei region. Read more

Reuters: Sudan says South Sudan “hostile” in oil row
01 Feb: Sudan, stepping up its rhetoric, accused South Sudan of “hostility” in their row over oil transit fees and said it would hold Juba responsible for any attack on northern oil facilities, a state-linked news website said on Wednesday. Read more

Reuters: South Sudan rejects African Union oil plan – Financial Times
01 Feb: South Sudan’s chief negotiator has rejected African Union-backed proposals that could see it pay up to $6.5 billion to Sudan in the latest attempt to break a deadlock between the two over oil export transit fees, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. Read more

Reuters: Sudan frees South Sudan’s oil tankers; dispute continues
30 Jan: Sudan released tankers loaded with South Sudanese oil that had been held at Port Sudan in a row over export transit fees, days after Khartoum seized crude from its new neighbour and offered it at a steeply discounted price. Read more

Reuters: Sudan asked Petrodar to load South Sudan oil – South Sudan
31 Jan: Sudan asked Chinese-Malaysian oil venture Petrodar to load 600,000 barrels of South Sudanese crude for export but the firm refused, a Southern official said on Tuesday, a development likely to further inflame a row over transit fees. Read more

Sudan

CNN: US accuses Sudan of bombing civilians
04 Feb: The United States accused Sudan of targeting civilians in recent airstrikes, including one that destroyed a Bible school in South Kordofan, an oil-rich Sudanese province that borders the newly-created independent country of South Sudan. Read more

Reuters: Sudan rebels “seeking way” to hand over abducted Chinese
04 Feb: Sudanese rebels said they are looking for ways to hand over 29 Chinese workers held in the border state of South Kordofan, Chinese state media said, as Sudan’s government confirmed the death of one worker in a firefight. Read more

Bloomberg: Sudan security agents arrest opposition members, Umma Party says
31 Jan: Four members of Sudan’s main opposition Umma party were arrested yesterday in the capital, Khartoum, party officials said. Read more

Reuters: Up to 500,000 new refugees could flee to South Sudan – WFP
30 Jan: Conflict and food shortages could push up to half a million Sudanese refugees to flee to South Sudan in the next couple months, if Khartoum does not allow aid agencies more access to its restive border regions, the World Food Program said. Read more

South Sudan

Reuters: South Sudan shoot-out kills 37, wounds UN policeman
04 Feb: A shoot-out among South Sudanese security forces using truck-mounted machine guns killed 37 people and injured a United Nations policeman on Wednesday, UN and government officials said on Friday. Read more

Reuters: UN investigates reports of South Sudan massacre
01 Feb: The UN mission in South Sudan is investigating reports of a massacre of nearly 80 people by armed men in uniforms, the United Nations said on Wednesday. Read more

Reuters: South Sudan oil shutdown to increase food aid dependence – UN
03 Feb: South Sudan’s decision to shut down its oil output will make many more people dependent on food aid in one of the world’s most undeveloped nations, the United Nations said. Read more

Sudan Tribune: 13 killed in attacks this week – Jonglei MP
05 Feb: Officials in South Sudan’s Jonglei state say armed raiders killed more than ten people in two separate attacks in Akobo and Bor counties this week, in the latest violence to affect the country’s largest state. Read more

Bloomberg: South Sudan says Total ready to start oil exploration in Jonglei
31 Jan: Total SA (FP) has agreed to begin oil exploration in the South Sudanese state of Jonglei where it holds a concession, South Sudan’s chief negotiator said. Read more

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Somalia: Creating space for fresh approaches to peacebuilding

Somalia: Creating space for fresh approaches to peacebuilding is a series of articles by leading peace practitioners, including John Paul Ledarach. The premise of the collection is the idea that the discussion on Somalia is too focused on international and regional security issues, whereas little attention is given to local complexities and the potential for peacebuilding.

Breaking the wave: Critical steps in the fight against crime in Guatemala

Guatemala has one of the highest murder rates in the world. Breaking the wave (pdf) examines the challenges facing Guatemala as it seeks to reduce its crime rate. Issues that must be resolved are identified and the dangers of a military-led approach are highlighted.

Traditional dispute resolution and Afghanistan’s women

In Afghanistan 80 per cent of disputes are resolved within traditional dispute resolution mechanisms. However these traditional practices often exclude women. Traditional dispute resolution and Afghanistan’s women is the result of a series of discussions in Kabul focused on how to provide women with greater access to justice.

Mapping police services in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Mapping police services in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a detailed report on the structure of police services in DR Congo. It looks at the national, local and international factors that have influence over the police services and the formal and informal structures that govern them.

Mediating conflicts with religious dimensions

Mediating conflicts with religious dimensions is a brief paper arguing that for mediators the “key is to look for practical solutions that address the involved parties’ concerns and that are compatible with their worldviews and values.”

From the blog

• For the first time a Tamil play co-directed by Tamil and Sinhalese directors is representing Sri Lanka at an international festival. Read more >>>
• USIP Senior Program Officer, Andrew Blum discusses a recent report on improving peacebuilding evaluation. Read more >>>
• Local correspondent for Pakistan, Zahid Ahmed looks at the improving relations between India and Pakistan. Read more >>>
• CeaseFire’s Josh Gryniewicz looks at peace as a prerequisite for economic development. Read more >>>
• The killing of FARC leader Alfanso Cano reveals that the conflict in Colombia needs a solution based on negotiation and justice, not military victory. Read more >>>
• Former Prime Minister’s Special Representative for Peacebuilding Lord Jack McConnell recalls his experience as an election observer in DR Congo’s recent elections. Read more >>>
• Evaluation is an on-going challenge for peacebuilders and has different roles to play. Are Sudanese peace initiatives able to “prove their worth” through evaluation? Read more >>>

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News Roundup

• The tensions surrounding oil transit fees continue for another week. On Sunday South Sudan announced it had completely shut down oil output, demanding a deal on border issues before production is restarted.
• South Sudan also signed a deal with Kenya to build a new pipeline. Ban Ki-moon says the tension between the two nations is a major threat to regional security. The Sudan Tribune reports that a group of 700 Sudanese military officers have urged Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir not to rush into war with the South.
• A refugee camp housing 5,000 people in South Sudan was bombed from the air on Tuesday.. South Sudan has accused Sudan of the attack.
• Darfur rebel group the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has named Gibril Ibrahim as the group’s new leader. Ibrahim takes control of the group after the death of his brother, Khalil Ibrahim, the former leader. The head of the UN peacekeeping mission in Darfur has said that the death of Khalil Ibrahim has led to JEM splitting into factions. At least one person has died in violent protests against the removal of the Governor of South Darfur.

News in detail

Sudan

BBC: Sudan troops ‘free 14 missing Chinese workers’
29 Jan: Sudanese troops have freed 14 out of 29 Chinese workers held by rebels in the south, Sudanese officials say. Read more

North-South relations

Reuters: South Sudan demands border deal before restarting oil
29 Jan: South Sudan has totally shut down oil output in a dispute with Sudan over export transit fees and will only restart after the two reach a deal covering border security and the disputed Abyei region, South Sudan’s oil minister said on Sunday. Read more

AFP: Sudan frees ships held in South Sudan oil row
29 Jan: On Sunday Sudan released three oil tankers held in a dispute with South Sudan, which has accused Khartoum of theft, the foreign ministry said. Read more

AFP: Sudan/South Sudan crisis “major threat” to peace – UN chief
29 Jan: UN chief Ban Ki-moon on Sunday said a crisis between Sudan and South Sudan has become a major threat to regional peace and security. Read more

Sudan Tribune: Sudan army officers warn Bashir and Hussein against rush to war with South
29 Jan: A group of 700 military officers from Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) confronted President Omer Hassan al-Bashir and his Defense Minister Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein with several demands that focused on military and political reforms the Sudan Tribune is told. Read more

Darfur

BBC: Brother of Darfur rebels’ late leader takes over
26 Jan: Darfur’s main rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), has named a new leader – the brother of the former head killed last month. Read more

Reuters: One dies in violent protests in Darfur
26 Jan: At least one person was killed on Wednesday when protesters in Sudan’s Darfur region burned government buildings and threw rocks at security forces after the removal of the State Governor. Read more

AFP: Darfur rebels split after leader’s death – peacekeepers
26 Jan: A rebel movement that was once the most powerful in Sudan’s war-ravaged Darfur region appears to have split into factions since the death of its leader last month, the head of the peacekeeping mission to the region said on Wednesday. Read more

South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Abyei

VOA: Sudan military may be poised for major offensive
25 Jan: Analysts say new satellite images of Sudan’s Southern Kordofan State indicate a major government military offensive is about to begin against the Nuba people. The images were released Wednesday by the Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP). Read more

AFP: EU wants end to Sudan fighting, seeks aid access
24 Jan: The European Union has called for an immediate end to fighting in two Sudanese states bordering South Sudan, and urged unhindered access for relief workers. Read more

South Sudan

Washington Post: Medical aid group says South Sudan’s ethnic clashes are part of pattern of ‘extreme violence’
24 Jan: South Sudan residents with gunshot and stab wounds continue to emerge from the bush weeks after a massive tribe-on-tribe attack killed an untold number of people, an international medical group said on Tuesday. Read more

AFP: South Sudan and Kenya sign oil pipeline deal
26 Jan: South Sudan signed an agreement with Kenya to build an oil pipeline to a Kenyan port, potentially freeing it from reliance on its northern neighbour Sudan, officials said Wednesday. Read more

Reuters: South Sudan blames Khartoum for bombing refugee camp
24 Jan: An air strike on a refugee camp near South Sudan’s border with Sudan wounded one boy and left 14 people missing on Monday, the UN refugee agency said. Read more

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I collected data from five conflict prevention initiatives working in Sudan. I was lucky to have participants from different categories of conflict prevention initiative – an intergovernmental organisation, two international NGOs, a local NGO, and a multinational. This allowed me to compare results from organisations with different levels of local representation.

I came up with several key learning points, with both practical and theoretical implications.

Discussing peace programmes in Sudan. Photo credit: NonviolentPeaceForce.org

So, can conflict prevention initiatives prove their worth?

To do this successfully, initiatives must deal with the ‘attribution gap’- the difficulty of pinpointing the reason for success or failure of peace programmes. They do this by breaking down impact measurement into manageable chunks, in recognition of the grey areas of success and failure in the peacebuilding field (for example, whether communities were better informed about how reconciliation would impact their livelihoods).

In addition, I found the following key learning points.

Key learning points

1) Evaluation as evidence for influencing

Evaluation is one way of building evidence to influence donors and international organisations. Evaluation documentation was on the whole intended for viewing by donors, often in the donors’ prescribed formatting.

2) Wider roles of peacebuilding evaluation

As well as donors, participants listed numerous stakeholders, most significantly the intended beneficiaries and internal management. The role of evaluation vis-à-vis these stakeholders went beyond simply proving worth. Participants stressed the learning function of evaluation, ultimately aimed at improving the prospects for initiatives to contribute to peace.

3)  Importance of local representation

The research supports Peace Direct’s emphasis on locally led conflict resolution. The level of local representation was found to be an important factor in initiatives’ ability to work and demonstrate their value. Perhaps the most remarkable result was the fact that the local NGO research participant could continue its work in the face of violent conflict, unlike the intergovernmental organisation.

4) Accountability tension

Initiatives are accountable to a number of stakeholders. Consequently, there are potential or actual tensions between initiatives’ accountabilities (e.g. to donor vs to beneficiaries). The results indicated that the ‘accountability tension’ concept is intrinsic to peacebuilding evaluation, but that it can be negotiated successfully.

5) Theoretical implications

1. The results supported common criticisms (such as Duffield’s) of liberal peacebuilding in two ways. Firstly, peacebuilding evaluation was found to support a system based on Western cultural values. Secondly, research participants backed evaluation methodologies that were culturally sensitive to local cultures, such as participatory evaluation.
2. The results supported established work on the connections between different levels of conflict (i.e. between what Stathis Kalivas calls micro and macro levels), and showed that these connections between different levels of conflict are also relevant for conflict prevention work.
3. By combining (i) and (ii), the results illustrate how peacebuilding contributes to the dissemination of the Western cultural paradigm: peacebuilding evaluations demonstrate the value of interventions, using theories of change that demonstrate the transfer between micro and macro levels of conflict prevention.

6) Future guidance on peacebuilding evaluation

The results support the adoption of universal guidance on peacebuilding evaluation across the peacebuilding field.  Such guidance should be non-prescriptive, culturally sensitive, and acknowledge the accountability tension. I found that the OECD’s guidance on peacebuilding evaluation (currently under consultation) represents a problematic option for this as it runs the risk of being viewed with suspicion, given it is produced by a donors’ body. Instead, I suggest that guidance should be developed through a field wide process, as per the recent USIP and Alliance for Peacebuilding reports.

Implications for practitioners

1) Practitioners can use evaluations to address donors’ interests, building an evidence base for influencing them.

2) It is important to recognise that evaluators face a challenge to ensure that their accountability to donors does not come at the expense of internal values or intended beneficiaries.

3) The research results provide backing for the Peace Direct emphasis on the local. They do this firstly by identifying a need for locally led programmes (as the locally led programme was able to continue despite violent conflict), and secondly by highlighting the benefits of imbuing programmes with the target community’s knowledge and understanding.

4) When planning evaluations, it is essential to recognise that every programme represents a unique evaluation scenario. The most suitable evaluation approach should be selected by considering guidance such as the OECD or Mercy Corps resources, remembering to use participatory evaluation where possible.

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On arrival, I was particularly struck by how little French I actually remembered. While this may seem to be a trivial matter, it was one that grew in significance over the course of the weekend – especially when it transpired that this was to be the language of delivery for our first day of training! Luckily, I had plenty of willing translators on hand and, as each day passed, my linguistic skills improved.

Not too dissimilar to the electoral process in the UK, school buildings serve as the majority of polling centres, with individual classrooms serving as polling stations.

On Saturday 26^th November, we were tasked with ensuring that preparation was underway at the polling centres, checking whether the buildings were secure and if lists of voters had been posted.  On Sunday 27^th November, we took notes detailing whether materials, such as ballot papers and boxes had been delivered to the centres and securely distributed to individual classrooms.

As I spent time observing several voting sites on Monday 28^th November, I was truly inspired by the Congolese people’s enthusiasm and genuine desire for a transparent and truly fair electoral process. Despite the ballot paper amounting to more of a ballot book due to the sheer number of parliamentary candidates, most people voted for both their future president and their parliamentarian of choice.  People took their time to ensure they adhered to the rules of voting, eager to do it properly. Most poignantly, it was apparent that people simply wanted to vote; they wanted their voice to be heard.

As we travelled to various polling stations, it was evident that the majority of voters not only wanted to participate in a fair and open election, but were genuinely grateful for the presence of the international observers.   There were four or five situations where tensions flared between voters, but these were in many ways similar to the aggravation caused by party activists in any typical British election.  On receiving complaints of misconduct, our role was to report such instances through the appropriate channels, and note any patterns or discrepancies.

At the end of the day, votes were counted in each classroom and witnesses for candidates signed in agreement of ballot figures, before these were transported in a sealed bag to the National Results Centre for verification.

While I bore witness to several amateur practices – including loose ballot papers, sloppy admin, and human error in vote counting – overall, the election day itself seemed to be quite successful. The EurAc/AETA Official Report highlights several violent incidents in the Kananga province, and there was clearly intimidation in other areas.  But the vast majority of Congolese did vote peacefully. With determination and high spirits, the majority of the people in the DR Congo tried to do their part to contribute to an effective and reliable democratic electoral process. This should not be discounted or overlooked.

A large part of the international community has responded to the elections with condemnation and frustration.  However, it is vital that criticisms of a few do not negate the sincere efforts and genuine hopes of the many.  My personal experience is that the majority of the Congolese believe in a credible and honest democratic election, and went to great lengths travelling near and far to participate.  A complete dismissal of their efforts risks undermining their faith in democratic values, the very values which the international community has worked hard to support.  It is imperative that global criticisms of corruption of the Congolese few should be met equally with admiration of the Congolese many who have endeavored to participate in the election openly and fairly.   And that the international donors, like the UK and the EU, insist on lessons learned so that the next Congolese elections meet the aspirations of the Congolese people more consistently.

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Release of FARC held prisoners facilitated by Colombianas por la paz (Photo credit: Telesur)

On 4 October 2011, after a military campaign lasting several years , involving several thousand Colombian Special Forces and with a still unidentified cost in terms of civilian victims, troop casualties, and Colombian pesos, the Colombian Army killed the FARC chief, alias Alfonso Cano. It is the first time FARC, the world’s oldest active guerrilla organisation, has had its leader killed in combat and has led to claims in certain sectors that the death of the guerrilla leader has brought Colombia closer to peace. Whilst undoubtedly a military success for the Colombian Army, one must ask if a military solution is the answer to the Colombian conflict. Does the continued militarisation of Colombia bring peace closer? Will continued military victories eradicate the structural causes of the armed, political and social conflicts that exist in Colombia? Or is there a need for a different approach?

Photo credit: http://www.rioja2.com

The initiative began with an exchange of letters, published publicly, in which the movement sought to promote a dialogue with Colombia’s two largest guerrilla groups, FARC and ELN. The aim of the letters was to discuss openly with the guerrillas the desire to bring peace to Colombia through negotiation. This effort began with a call for the end to the use of kidnapping as a tool of war and for the release of all prisoners being held by the guerrillas in the mountains of Colombia. Indeed this effort produced positive results. Since its creation, Colombianas y colombianos por la paz has been instrumental in securing the unilateral release of 20 prisoners of war held captive by guerrilla groups. In addition to the release of prisoners, the last year has been characterised by a series of statements from both the guerrilla groups and the Colombian government regarding the possibility of a negotiated solution to the Colombian conflict – not forgetting that these statements were made in the context of a conflict that continued and continues causing deaths on all sides.

Alfonso Cano, real name Guillermo León Sáenz Vargas, was seen by the peace movement as a solid negotiating partner with whom future talks were a real possibility. ‘By prioritising armed confrontation instead of a political solution brought about through dialogue and negotiation, the Government is showing that it lacks a real program for peace’. It was the logic of war rather than the logic of peace that demanded his death. As commented by the respected Colombian academic Carlos Medina Gallego , the military logic that dictates that your enemy can be bombed to the negotiating table will only serve to continue the cycle of violence and further exacerbate the conflict.

In their press release following the death of Alfonso Cano, Colombianas y colombianos por la paz declared its commitment to continue in its efforts to create spaces for dialogue and negotiation:

From Colombianas y colombianos por la paz we believe that there have already been too many deaths in our country and that the bloodshed must stop. For this reason we will continue working to achieve peace with social justice and not for the peace offered by the establishment that is conceived in terms of cemeteries or prison cells – the only thing that this achieves is the never ending prolongation of the war

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News Roundup

There has been renewed fighting in Blue Nile. The US envoy to Sudan warned that the conflict-affected border states – Blue Nile and South Kordofan – are facing famine. Sudan has rejected any suggestion of an ‘aid corridor’ to allow international agencies into the region. The US is believed to be considering a unilateral aid operation.

Ethnic violence continued between the Murle and Lou Nuer in Jonglei, South Sudan. The UN said last week 120,000 people are in need of emergency aid because of the conflict, doubling the previous estimate.

The dispute over oil revenues continues. After Sudan said it had begun confiscating South Sudanese oil in compensation for unpaid oil transit fees, South Sudan says it is preparing to shut down oil production because the country “is not benefiting from oil”. Chinese media report that South Sudan is planning to build a new pipleine through East Africa, bypassing Sudan. Sudan said a deal on oil was unlikely without first reaching an agreement on security and border issues.

News in detail

Abyei, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan

Reuters: New fighting in Sudan’s Blue Nile border state
19 Jan: Sudan’s army has clashed with rebels in Blue Nile state, which borders South Sudan and where fighting has been going on for five months, but the army denied on Thursday that rebels had shot down a helicopter. Read more

CNN: Sudan faces potential famine, US envoy warns
18 Jan: Half a million people will face an emergency bordering on famine by March if international humanitarian organisations are not allowed into areas of Sudan that are mired in conflict, United States envoy to Sudan Princeton Lyman warned on Wednesday. Read more

AFP: Sudan rejects aid ‘corridor’ for war zone
21 Jan: Sudan on Friday rejected any plan for an aid “corridor” to war-torn southern states after the United States warned of a possible “horrific” famine affecting civilians in the area. Read more

Sudan Tribune: US mulling aid operation in Blue Nile and South Kordofan – report
19 Jan: The United States is considering taking a unilateral move that would aim at providing aid to hundreds of thousands of people who face the daunting prospect of famine in Sudan’s border states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan, according to a newspaper report. Read more

North-South Relations

Reuters: South Sudan says to shut oil production within 2 weeks
20 Jan: South Sudan said on Friday it was preparing to gradually shut down oil production within two weeks after Sudan said it had started seizing Southern oil to compensate for what it said were unpaid transit fees. Read more

Reuters: South Sudan to build crude pipe thru East Africa – Xinhua
21 Jan: South Sudan is planning to construct an oil refinery and a crude-oil export pipeline through East Africa with the help of international oil companies operating in its fields, China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday. Read more

Reuters: South Sudan says Khartoum loading more confiscated oil
17 Jan: South Sudan on Tuesday said Sudan had taken control of 2.15 million barrels of Southern oil at Port Sudan, loading oil onto vessels belonging to Khartoum, as both countries argue over how to share oil revenues. Read more

Reuters: Sudan says oil deal with South depends on security
18 Jan: Sudan will continue to take a share of oil from South Sudan to compensate for what it calls unpaid transit fees, and said an oil deal was unlikely without an agreement on border and security issues, its foreign minister said on Wednesday. Read more

Sudan

Bloomberg: Sudan human rights record deteriorating, rights group says
22 Jan: Sudan’s human rights record deteriorated in 2011 with the eruption of new armed conflicts and crackdowns on students, rights advocates and the media, Human Rights Watch said. Read more

South Sudan

Reuters: UN says 120,000 in South Sudan need aid after fighting
20 Jan: Tribal fighting in South Sudan has left 120,000 people in need of emergency food aid, twice the previous estimate, the United Nations said on Friday. Read more

Reuters: Russia likely to withdraw from UN’s South Sudan force
18 Jan: Russia is likely to withdraw its military helicopters servicing the UN peacekeeping force in South Sudan after voicing alarm at attacks on Russian personnel there, a Russian official said on Tuesday . Read more

Darfur

AFP: Nigerian peacekeeper killed in Darfur ambush – UN
22 Jan: Gunmen ambushed a UN-African Union peacekeeping patrol in Sudan’s conflict-stricken Darfur region on Saturday, killing one Nigerian soldier and wounding three, the UN said. Read more

AFP: Monitors call for UN access in Sudan’s Darfur
16 Jan: UN peacekeepers must have unrestricted access within Sudan’s troubled Darfur region, international monitors overseeing a peace deal for the area said on Monday. Read more

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The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), a think-tank dedicated to exploring the intersections between business, economics and peace has been demonstrating the value of peace to the global economy since 2007. As they state on their website:

Economic development, business and peace are interlinked. There is little doubt that peace creates more economic benefits to a society than violence or war. Peace is conducive to business and areas of minimal violence are attractive to business investors. At the same time, business can play a decisive role in building and strengthening global peace through job and wealth creation.

IEP produces the annual Global Peace Index gauging ongoing domestic conflict in the United States, as well as international conflict. Taking numerous factors into consideration IEP looks at the safety and security in society, as well as the militarization in 153 countries. The 2011 findings indicate that if the world had been 25 percent more peaceful in the past year that the global economy would have reaped a US$2 trillion economic benefit.

IEP is the brainchild of Steve Killelea, an Australian IT entrepreneur, who sees the “Peace Industry” as essential to our survival as a species. Killelea isn’t an alarmist (which may make his concerns all the more alarming), but a pragmatic visionary. He not only has the perceptive forethought to see the inter-relations between economic, ecological, and human forces at work on a global scale, but as the largest individual donor to overseas aid in Australia to invest in practical solutions that can reverse these trends.

CeaseFire has followed IEP’s work for several years now. While the 2011 research indicates the world is less peaceful for the third straight year, IEP’s promote the economic as well as humanitarian importance of investing in peace should itself inspire hope.

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News roundup

• The dispute between Sudan and South Sudan oil transit fees escalated last week. All South Sudanese oil exports flow north through Sudan, but the two countries have yet to reach an agreement on what the South should pay Sudan. Last week South Sudan accused Sudan of blockading South Sudanese oil exports. Sudan has denied this, but has said it has started confiscating some South Sudanese oil exports to pay for what it claims are unpaid fees.
• Fighting continued last week between two ethnic groups, the Lou Nuer and Murle, in Jonglei, South Sudan. In one incident the government said 57 people – mostly women and children – were killed in a revenge attack by the Murle. The USA has sent 5 military officers to join the UN mission in Juba.
• The UN says that the Sudanese government is restricting the movements of peacekeepers in Darfur. Two new states have been created in Darfur – Eastern Darfur and Central Darfur.

News in detail

South Sudan

BBC: South Sudan clashes: Murles exact revenge in Jonglei
13 Jan: Some 57 people, mostly women and children, have been killed in a revenge attack in South Sudan, officials say. Read more

AFP: Renewed South Sudan clashes kill at least 24
9 Jan: Renewed tribal clashes in South Sudan’s troubled Jonglei state have killed at least 24 people, days after a cattle vendetta rattled the stability of the world’s newest state, officials said Monday. Read more

AFP: UN warns South Sudan of multiple crises
10 Jan: South Sudan faces challenges of “huge dimensions” as the world’s newest nation struggles to support hundreds of thousands of people returning home or fleeing violence, the UN refugee chief said on Tuesday. Read more

Washington Post: Obama sending 5 US military officers to South Sudan amid outbreaks of ethnic violence
10 Jan: President Barack Obama is sending five American military officers to South Sudan amid recent outbreaks of violence in the newly independent African nation. Read more

AFP: 13 dead in tribal revenge attacks in South Sudan – government
15 Jan: Almost one hundred people were killed in South Sudan’s troubled Jonglei state last week, with the government on Sunday reporting 13 more deaths as a cattle vendetta between two tribes grips the new nation. Read more

North-South relations

Reuters: South Sudan says Sudan blocking its oil exports
11 Jan: South Sudan has accused the Sudanese government of blocking 3.4 million barrels of its crude oil exports, diverting over half a million barrels to its refineries and building a pipeline to keep diverting its oil. Read more

Reuters: Sudan says taking some South Sudan oil and won’t close pipe
15 Jan: Sudan said on Sunday it has started confiscating some oil exports from South Sudan that it believes it is owed to meet unpaid transit fees, but will not shut down a pipeline carrying the southern state’s oil. Read more

AFP: Bids open on Sudan oil blocks amid South Sudan row
15 Jan: International oil companies gathered on Sunday to study six exploration blocks that Sudan opened for bidding ahead of talks aimed at resolving a long-running oil fee dispute with South Sudan. Read more

Darfur

AFP: UN says Sudan government blocking Darfur patrols
12 Jan: The United Nations said on Wednesday that the Sudanese government is “severely” restricting movements by peacekeepers in Darfur, where fresh clashes have broken out and peace talks are deadlocked. Read more

Sudan Tribune: Bashir establishes two states in Darfur and reshuffles governors
10 Jan: Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir on Tuesday issued three decrees creating two new states and appointing new governors in the country’s western region of Darfur. Read more

Sudan

AFP: Independent Sudan paper to shut down
13 Jan: Sudanese authorities have ordered an independent daily newspaper to suspend publication, its editor said on Friday, in the latest government action against the press and activists. Read more

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