Sudan and South Sudan: Conflict Profile
On 9 July 2011 Sudan split in two creating the world’s newest nation – the Republic of South Sudan. South Sudan’s independence was the final stage of a 6 year peace agreement ending decades of civil war. However, peace is not yet guaranteed. As the South gains statehood, crucial issues such as border demarcation, sharing of debt, and oil revenues and the use of the North’s pipeline remain unresolved. Fighting in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Abyei threatens the stability of the peace, and there is ongoing tensions and violence on both sides of the border.
Problems are not confined to tensions only along the border. Less dramatic, but arguably more damaging is the serious rise in food and water prices, the lack of medical care and infrastructure, significant IDP flows, and poorly functioning economy of the South. These developments daily endangering lives simply through lack, and encourages reckless and desperate behaviour that can lead to violence. Both countries have significant internal conflicts to deal with. Decades of violence during the North-South civil war followed by a fragile peace agreement mean that legacies of violence remain and numerous localised conflicts continue. Darfur has caught the world’s attention, while the South is facing multiple rebel groups in the border states of Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile.
For the first half of the 20th Century, Sudan existed under joint Anglo-Egyptian rule. Significantly, throughout this period the colonial administration chose to rule the vast country as though it were two distinct entities – an Arab Muslim North and a Black Christian South. Although the demographic reality of Sudan was in fact far more mixed throughout, the colonial administration ruled according to this strict – and somewhat false – dichotomy.
From the beginning of the Anglo-Egyptian rule, the British sought to modernise northern (Arab) Sudan by applying European technology to its underdeveloped economy and by replacing its authoritarian institutions with ones more in line with Western liberalism. Indirect rule was also used as a means of colonial administration, relying upon the authority of local Muslim sheikhs, and thus in the Northern region a strong sense of Arab-Muslim nationalism was promulgated.
Meanwhile, Southern Sudan’s remote and undeveloped provinces received comparatively little official attention, except for sporadic attempts to suppress tribal warfare and the slave trade. The administration of the region occurred primarily through indirect rule, utilising indigenous tribal chiefs, whilst at the same time virtually sealing the region off to the outside world by preventing trade with outsiders. At the same time, Christian missionaries operated a few schools and medical clinics, provided limited social services in Southern Sudan, whilst encouraging Christianity among the region’s indigenous tribes.
Independence and the first civil war
Ten years before Sudan gained its independence, in 1946 the British decided to abandon the two distinct ruling policies in favour of a single unified administration. However, this was done without consultation with Southern leaders, who by this stage had come to view their region as culturally, religiously and socioeconomically distinct from the North.
Independence in 1956 was therefore heavily overshadowed by unresolved tensions with the South, which flared up into full-scale civil war led by Anyanya, a rebel militia based in the South. Then followed a twenty-year long period of civil war, during which the Khartoum government experienced successive coups and changes in regime. In 1972 the Addis Ababa agreement was reached, in which the then military-led government of President Nimeiri agreed to political autonomy – though not full independence – for the South, and with that the Anyanya rebellion died down.
The second civil war
In September 1983, President Nimieri introduced legislation to roll out the jurisdiction of Islamic sharia law throughout Sudan’s entirety. A young tribesman from the South named John Garang reacted by forming the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) that same year, fighting for secular reform and to preserve the unity of Sudan. Beyond this stated goal however, it is widely held that a key motivating factor behind the SPLA’s rebellion was the discovery of oil in Sudan – the first oil field was discovered in Bentui, Southern Sudan in 1978.
In 1985, after widespread popular unrest Nimieri was removed from power by a group of officers and a Transitional Military Council was established to rule the country. A year later a coalition government was formed after general elections, with Sadiq al-Mahdi as prime minister. Meanwhile, fighting with the SPLA continued, despite numerous attempts to quell the conflict using both military and political means. Throughout these years, clashes between the SPLA and Khartoum, as well as internal conflicts within the SPLA, precipitated enormous civilian casualties, numbering an estimated 2 million and displacing another 4 million from their homes.
In 1989 Omar al-Bashir assumed presidency. Whilst war was still being waged against the SPLA in the South, in the Darfur region in the West of Sudan, a parallel conflict broke out in February 2003 when the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A, not to be confused with the SPLA) and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebel groups took up arms against al-Bashir’s government, which they accused of marginalising Darfur’s non-Arab population. The government responded to attacks by arming Janjiweed militias composed of certain nomadic Arab tribes and carrying out a campaign of ethnic cleansing against non-Arabs in Darfur, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of civilians. Many commentators have argued that the war in Darfur is linked to oil reserves in the region, but this has been largely refuted.
In November 1997, the US government imposed a trade embargo – namely on oil – against Sudan and a total asset freeze against the government. The US believed the Government of Sudan gave support to international terrorism, destabilised neighboring governments, and permitted human rights violations.
Comprehensive Peace Agreement
In 2005 the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed by the political wing of the SPLA, the SPLM (Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement) and Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum, bringing an official end to the war. In accordance with the CPA a referendum was to be held on 9 January 2011 to determine whether the South should remain part of Sudan or become independent, whilst in the six intervening years the South was given the opportunity to begin building the foundations of its own government. A similar referendum was to be held in the disputed border region of Abyei to decide whether it joined the North or South, but this has been postponed due to a failure to reach an agreement on the terms of the referendum. The result of the 9 January referendum was almost unanimous. Over 99% opted for independence in a ballot which was widely accepted as free and fair. On 9 July 2011, South Sudan therefore gained independence from the north, taking with it around one-third of Sudan’s territory.
As the South gained statehood, crucial issues such as border demarcation, sharing of debt, and oil revenues and the use of the North’s pipeline remained unresolved. Fighting in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Abyei threatened the stability of the peace from the outset. The CPA included provisions for determining the future of Abyei, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile. Abyei is an oil-producing region claimed by both the North and South. South Kordofan and Blue Nile were the front line during the civil war, being Muslim majority border states with many who fought alongside the SPLM but lie on the Northern side of the 1956 border.
Meanwhile in Darfur, a ceasefire was signed between the government and a faction of the SLA in 2006, but this agreement was rejected by both the JEM and Al-Nur (another faction of the SLA). This fractured rebel alliances and changed the dynamics of the conflict. In 2008 a combined United Nations-African Union peacekeeping force was deployed in the region (UNAMID).
The previously underreported conflict came to the world’s attention with the US activist-led Save Darfur movement, and in 2009, when the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for President Bashir, citing his government’s links with the Janjiweed militia. The UN estimates that 300,000 may have died as a result of the conflict, although the Sudanese government puts this figure closer to 10,000. Up to 2.7 million have also been driven from their homes and are now living in IDP camps in Darfur and refugee camps in neighbouring Chad and Central African Republic.
In June 2011, a new Darfur Peace Agreement was proposed by the Joint Mediators at the Doha Peace Forum. The agreement was signed by the Government of Sudan and the Liberation and Justice Movement on 14 July 2011. Sporadic violence in Darfur, particularly of an inter-tribal nature, persists today however.
The Corruptions Perception Index has indicated Sudan as one of the most corrupt nations in the world. In September 2013 in the capital Khartoum, anti-government protests erupted, sparked by government’s decision to reduce fuel subsidies. An estimated 200 people are thought to have been killed as the clashes turned violent. Protests of a similar nature have occurred previously in Sudan’s history, but this particular episode sparked widespread international media attention, as commentators viewed the uprising as an extension of the Arab Spring. However, unlike the majority of other Arab countries in recent years, the protests in Sudan ended after only ten days, and no major government reform or regime change followed. The pervasive political grievances that underpinned the protests live on. President al-Bashir’s ICC arrest warrant also remains unexecuted, due to a failure of cooperation from Sudan and neighbouring African states.
Elsewhere in the country, deepening conflict and humanitarian crises in South Kordofan and Blue Nile state. Throughout Sudan, chronic food insecurity and poverty prevail.
The work of local peace building organisations here is essential. They are able to build grassroots movements for peace and help traditional enemies resist violence. They are able to work in areas international organisations cannot access and are best placed to build peace in their own communities.
South Sudan is the world’s youngest state and the product of Africa’s longest running civil war, which spanned over fifty years. After many decades of fighting led by Sudan’s Southern rebel groups against the government in Khartoum, South Sudan seceded from Sudan in on 9th July 2011. Although the war of independence in officially over, violent conflict within the nascent country persists, with the most recent episode beginning in December 2013 claiming the lives of an estimated 10,000 people to date. Conflicts over power, ethnic politics, oil revenues, cattle rustling and scarce resources underpin violence being inflict by and against the civilian population around the country today.
The new state
The result of the 9 January referendum was almost unanimous. After the independence ballot, and with the SPLM as the leading party, Salva Kiir became president and Riek Machar vice president. However, as the South gained statehood, crucial issues such as border demarcation, sharing of debt, and oil revenues and the use of the North’s pipeline remained unresolved. The CPA included provisions for holding referendums to determine the future of Abyei, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile. Abyei is an oil-producing region claimed by both the North and South. South Kordofan and Blue Nile were the front line during the civil war, being Muslim majority border states with many who fought alongside the Southern SPLM but lie on the Northern side of the 1956 border. These referendums have been postponed indefinitely however, due to a failure to reach an agreement on the terms of the referendum.
South Sudan‘s problems were not solved by its detachment from Sudan and it emerged from the referendum of independence as a deeply troubled state. Socioeconomic underdevelopment was, and remains, chronic. Though it contains vast potential for oil production in its territory, as well as numerous other natural resources, the benefits of this have largely fallen into the hands of a few wealthy elite in Juba. Though South Sudan took 75% of Sudan’s oil reserves with it when it became independent, Sudan is at present the only route through which that oil can be transported, and thus the two countries exist in a fragile and troubled symbiotic relationship, with oil output suffering as a result. Power struggles played out along ethnic lines, scarce resources and cattle rustling act as further fuel to the pockets of violent conflict flaring up throughout the country. In particular, a rebel insurrection led by David Yaw Yaw in the Jonglei region in the east of the country against the SPLA beginning in 2010 has claimed many hundreds, if not thousands of lives. Throughout the country, reports of abuse by the national army against civilians, as well as numerous other human rights violations, are commonplace.
Meanwhile, in government, factionalism and chronic corruption present enormous challenges. The cleavage between Riek Machar and his Nuer supporters, and Salva Kiir, who like Garang is a Dinka, have quietly persisted. In July 2013, Kiir abruptly sacked Machar from his position as vice president, as well as numerous other members of his cabinet.
On 15 December 2013, after Machar and some supporters chose to boycott a National Liberation Council meeting, clashes within the presidential guard broke out between Dinka and Nuer soldiers. The fighting rapidly escalated, spreading throughout the capital Juba, to Bor in Jonglei and several oil-producing regions. Salva Kiir described the incident as being a ‘coup attempt’ by Machar, though this has not been confirmed. Throughout the country the fighting took on an ethnic dimension, between the Nuer and Dinka, though the lines on conflict are not as clean cut as that. Since this conflict began, it is believed that as many as 10,000 people have been killed, and 400,000 displaced. Shortly after the conflict began, the government controversially invited Ugandan troops into the country to help quell the uprising. Peace negotiations led by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) began in Addis Ababa in January, though they have been stalled numerous times, and though a ceasefire was agreed upon on January 31st 2014, pockets of armed conflict continue.
Last updated: March 2014