Introduction

The war in Kosovo (Albanian: Kosova, Serbian: Kosovo-Metohija) in 1998-99 followed almost a decade of Serbian repression and predominantly non-violent resistance from the majority Albanian population. Since then, the former-Yugoslav province has been under UN administration (UN Mission in Kosovo) with an international military presence (KFOR) led by NATO. Kosovo Albanians want an independent state and their main political parties have cooperated with UNMIK in building up Provisional Institutions of Self-Government (PISG). The Serbian minority, however, fear for their future outside Serbia and, rather than cooperate with UNMIK, have maintained their own 'parallel institutions' - courts, schools and health care services. The UN Special Envoy Marti Ahtisaari has proposed 'independence under international supervision'.

Albanian minorities in states neighbouring Kosovo have been involved in risings since the war - in Preshevo Valley (south Serbia) and Macedonia - underlining the potential of this situation to 'destabilise' neighbouring territories.

The Ahtisaari plan

The UN Special Envoy has recommended that Kosovo should be granted independence under international supervision and with a continued NATO-led international military presence. Claiming to have "exhausted every possible avenue to achieve a negotiated settlement" (negotiated between the governments in Belgrade and Prishtina), Ahtisaari argues that the issue of Kosovo's status must be resolved urgently because the uncertainty is "a major obstacle to Kosovo's democratic development ... and inter-ethnic reconciliation". To address Serbian concerns, Ahtisaari proposes 'decentralisation', in practice enhancing the powers of four municipalities where there is a Kosovo Serb majority and establishing two new Serb-controlled municipalities. 'Decentralisation' would permit extensive municipal cooperation with Belgrade, involve municipalities in appointing local police chiefs, and make them responsible for education at all levels and both primary and secondary health care.

While independence is unpalatable for most Serbs, Kosovo Albanians suspect that Belgrade and Kosovo Serbs would use this 'decentralisation' plan to engineer some kind of de facto partition of Kosovo.

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War in Kosovo

In the winter of 1997-98, the Kosova Liberation Army began to claim that it had 'liberated' areas of Kosovo. This was mainly theatre: it had only a couple of hundred of members at this time, and up to mid-January 1998 claimed to have killed just 21 people - 10 Serbian and 11 Albanian 'traitors'. The Yugoslav government then ordered a special security offensive to wipe out the KLA. However, their atrocities - the 'Drenica massacres' in which they slaughtered whole extended families - had the reverse effect. Thousands of Albanians flocked to join the KLA, and fighting escalated. In 1998, more than 300,000 Albanians were displaced and nearly 2,000 killed in Kosovo. Most of those killed were neither armed nor members of the KLA; of the few KLA members killed, most were extra-judicially executed, not killed in battle.

Following the breakdown of the Rambouillet negotiations, the war reached its height with the NATO bombing campaign of March-June 1999 and the wholesale ethnic cleansing campaign by Serbian forces. Some 850,000 Albanians fled Kosovo, while half a million more were 'internally displaced'. Between March and June, more than a third of Kosovo's housing stock was damaged or destroyed, some by shelling, mostly by being set on fire by Serbian security forces or paramilitaries.

The probable death toll was something near 10,000 people, the great majority being Albanians. There remain more than 2,000 people missing, mostly Albanian but more than 20% Serb. From president Milosevic and his generals down, a number of Serbs have been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Tribunal on Former-Yugoslavia in The Hague. .In order to hide evidence of their war crimes, Serbian forces transported more than 1,000 cadavers from Kosovo into Serbia proper - more than 1,000 corpses have been exhumed since the fall of Milosevic.

The Serbian security forces organised the rape of an unknown number of Albanian women.

Some KLA members have been indicted for war crimes - including Ramush Haradinaj, elected prime minister of Kosovo in 2004. These crimes include acts against Albanians as well as Serbs.

No representatives of NATO are being prosecuted for war crimes, despite the serious criticisms levelled at NATO's conduct of the war by human rights groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. Since the war hundreds of people have been injured by unexploded ordnance - land mines mainly placed by Serbian forces, and cluster bombs recklessly dropped by US and British planes. NATO used munitions made with depleted uranium, but continues to deny that this can cause health problems for the local population and its own troops.

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Build-up to war

For most of the 1990s, Kosovo was described as a place of 'neither war nor peace'. Slobodan Milosevic annulled Kosovo' autonomy in 1989 and 1990, imposing the Serbian education curriculum, dismissing more than 70% of those Albanians in employment, and relocating businesses and machinery to Serbia proper while allowing the province's mines to rust and rot.

Throughout the 1990s, Serbian police and paramilitaries committed acts of brutality against the Albanian population of Kosovo that were documented by local, Belgrade-based and international human rights groups, including UN special rapporteurs. Believing that Belgrade wanted to provoke war, Albanians switched to a policy of 'refusing to be provoked'. Their non-violent strategy centred on declaring their independence and organising their own rudimentary state, electing a president (Ibrahim Rugova), providing schooling from primary to university level for around 350,000 pupils and students, building up a network of health clinics independent of the Serbian system, and introducing a system of voluntary taxation. Almost the entire Albanian population was involved in this despite widespread police harassment, mainly in the form of beatings.

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Post-war violence

Even before NATO troops entered Kosovo on 10 June 1999, thousands of Serbian families were already leaving. In the law and order vacuum of the next six months, hundreds of Serbs were killed in Kosovo. According to Amnesty International, 1,300 Serbs and 800 Roma were abducted. Thousands more were driven out of their homes. Properties vacated by Serbs were sometimes occupied, sometimes torched. Most of the remaining Serbs re-grouped into enclaves protected by international forces. In the particularly symbolic case of Mitrovica, Serbs evicted Albanians living north of the river and organised their own vigilantes.

There have been sporadic attacks by Albanians on Serbs since 1999, most notably in March 2004, when 19 Serbs were killed and many more fled from their homes in reaction to a false rumour (reported as fact in local media) that four Albanian children had been drowned after being chased by Serbs. In general, those Serbs remaining in Kosovo complain of lack of security and lack of freedom of movement.

Each year since UNMIK was established, the number of murders in Kosovo has fallen, and most of these are not inter-ethnic. However, intimidation is widespread - both on an ethnic basis and between different factions of the Albanian population.

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Post-war institution building

The United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo (UNMIK) has headed the international humanitarian operation with the highest funding per capita. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has been in charge of democracy-building, the European Union (EU) and World Bank of economic revival, while NATO has led the international military presence - initially more than 50,000 troops, now down to around 16,000. On top of this there has been an UNMIK police force which has gradually been reduced to around 1,300 as a multi-ethnic 7,000-strong local police force has been built up.

Following the elections of November 2001 and the establishment of Provisional Institutions of Self-Government, Kosovo regained most of the powers of self-government it had lost in 1989, only now as a UN protectorate rather than an autonomous province of Yugoslavia. In his report in 2005, UN rapporteur Kai Eide was impressed with the progress of the parliamentary system but observed that "the Kosovo police and judiciary are fragile institutions" faced with serious problems of organised crime - including property rackets and human trafficking - and corruption.

The new Kosovo Police Service draws on all ethnic groups, despite the intimidation of Serb police by their own communities, and has succeeded in integrating Albanians sacked from the police force in 1989 and Serbs from the pre-1999 force. It has been heralded as one of the successes of institution-building, despite its limited role in dealing with civil disorder and its lack of effectiveness in various places during the March 2004 anti-Serb attacks.

An institution that has been particularly problematic has been the Kosovo Protections Corps, headed until 2006 by the current Prime Minister, Agim Çeku, a former KLA commander. The KPC exists to respond to disasters and to provide humanitarian assistance, including de-mining and physical reconstruction. Its formation, however, was part of the negotiations to 'demilitarise' the KLA - and most of its members are KLA veterans. Some have been accused of post-war killings and several senior officers were removed on suspicion of helping Albanian insurgents in Macedonia. Normally unarmed, it is expressly forbidden from taking part in law enforcement or defence. However, most Kosovo Albanians see the KPC as the nucleus of the army for an independent Kosovo. Ahtisaari says its work has been done and proposes to disband it within a year.

UNMIK itself cannot be considered to have been a model for 'good practice' in governance. External investigators have identified problems of corruption within the institution and human rights groups have criticised its 'unaccountability'. Feminist researchers further argue that under UNMIK Kosovo has moved from being a transit point for sex trafficking to becoming a destination.

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Kosovo's economy

Kosovo was always the poorest unit in former-Yugoslavia, having the highest unemployment and the greatest dependence on money sent home from family members working abroad. An enormous amount of physical reconstruction has taken place since the war, but Kosovo's economy remains trapped in what the current head of UNMIK has called "a vicious circle of low growth, high unemployment, fiscal imbalances and foreign trade imbalances".

Kosovo imports 24 times as much as it exports. Only 16% of registered businesses are in manufacturing and production. The Kosovo 'grey economy' includes practices condemned by intergovernmental bodies - from children selling cigarettes in the streets, through wholesale multimedia piracy, to sex trafficking. The international presence has expanded the market for all these. In addition, a traditional 'grey economy' makes it extremely difficult to calculate the real rate of unemployment. More than half the population of Kosovo is rural and engage in subsistence farming, which means that people will register as 'available for employment' while carrying out work on the family's land.

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Local politics

Local politics remain polarised. Among Kosovo Albanians, the parties are divided mainly by personality and historical allegiances. The main parties demand independence without elaborating distinct social policies. A history of inter-party intimidation and violence means that the main parties now have their own security wings. It is a sign of the continued male domination of Kosovo Albanian politics that not one woman was chosen to be part of the negotiating team in 2007.

Serbian politicians in general have preferred not to cooperate with the institutions brought into existence under UNMIK. Especially in the three northernmost Serbian municipalities (which border Serbia), the local political leaders tend to be more answerable to Belgrade than to local Serbs. While there are differences between the Serb communities neighbouring Serbia and those in Albanian-majority areas, Belgrade retains considerable influence as it pays the staff salaries for the Serbian 'parallel institutions'.

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Civil society

After the war, some 2,000 bodies registered as 'NGOs' with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Today it is clear that most of these do not have any real existence, but were registered mainly in order to apply for the numerous grants from international humanitarian organisations seeking local partners. In many cases - including a number of 'peace', 'conflict resolution' and 'anti-violence' projects - NGOs stopped work when their contract expired.

Some of the most active predominantly Albanian NGOs have grown out of groups established during the non-violent struggle. These include the members of the Kosova Women's Network, the Council for the Defence of Human Rights and Freedoms, the humanitarian Mother Theresa Association, and Kosovan Nansen Dialogue. Reacting to the exclusion of women from the official talks on the future of Kosovo, the Kosova Women's Networks and women's groups from Serbia meet for their own unofficial discussions, producing statements about the conflict and discussing principles for its resolution.

The OSCE and various non-governmental international organisations have tried to nurse cross-community projects into existence, especially to involve youth and women. One problem is the historic weakness of independent organisations on the Serbian side, where life has previously been oriented more around official institutions or the Orthodox Church.

Other ethnic minorities - most noticeably Bosniaks - also have formed associations that look to address social issues and play their part in building a peaceful Kosovo.

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The Serbs in Kosovo

It is estimated that there are nearly 130,000 Serbs in Kosovo, nearly half of them living in areas north of the river Ibar neighbouring Serbia, and the rest in Albanian-majority areas. They have their own courts, schools and health care facilities, with Belgrade paying judges, teachers and medical professionals salaries double what they would receive in Serbia itself (a 100% bonus as an incentive to stay in Kosovo). Until 2006 these wages were generally augmented by a salary from the budget of Kosovo's 'provisional institutions'.

The Serbian communities try to carry on their lives as if they live in Serbia, using the Serbian currency (the dinar, whereas the rest of Kosovo use the euro), the Cyrillic alphabet, the Serbian mobile telephone company, etc. However, there are significant differences between Serbs that have yet to find a clear political expression. For instance, many Serbs say they would simply leave an independent Kosovo. Yet those who live in the southern areas of Kosovo are more oriented towards trying to stay, adapting as have Muslim Slavs (the Bosniak and Gorani minorities). Moreover, the Orthodox Church - a fierce lobbyist for greater involvement by all Serbs in the issue of Kosovo - will never abandon Kosovo, no matter who governs it.

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The issue of 'minority' return

UNMIK declared that one of the 'benchmarks' for its success would be the return of members of ethnic minorities to Kosovo. Belgrade, on the other hand, seeks to use the issue of the expulsion of Serbs from Kosovo in its campaign against independence for Kosovo.

It is unclear how many members of ethnic minorities left Kosovo. Belgrade claims 250,000, mainly Serbs. This is a propaganda figure that exceeds the total population of Serbs and Montenegrins in Kosovo at the time of the 1991 census. The UNHCR does not have a separate register, but has noted problems of double counting, and also that some displaced people are commuting to Kosovo.

Non-Serb members of minorities have been readier than Serbs to return. Of the nearly 16,000 minority returnees since 1999, fewer than half are Serbs. A visitor to Kosovo can see newly built houses standing empty, guarded by international security firms, waiting for someone to return. It is difficult to know how many displaced people actually want to return. Numbers of minority returnees actually declined in 2006 - for lack of economic opportunities, in view of the uncertainty of the territory's status, and because of concerns about security.

Many Serbs have already sold their property in Kosovo, and most Prishtina Serbs (the Serb population of Prishtina was as high as 40,000) are probably resigned to never living there again. International agencies report that many displaced Serbs, eight years after the war, would rather rebuild their lives in Serbia proper. However, Belgrade has refused to cooperate with the housing or training schemes in Serbia proposed by international agencies.

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Pre-Yugoslav History

The pre-twentieth century history of Kosovo is a source of endless dispute, especially because Albanians and Serbs have learnt two different versions of history. Albanians consider themselves 'autochthonous' to Kosovo, and celebrate Albanian resistance to the Ottoman Empire and later Kosovo's role as a centre of the Albanian renaissance. Serbs on the other hand look back to the Orthodox Church and the medieval kingdom of Serbia, and celebrate Kosovo as 'the cradle of Serbian civilisation'.

The fact that both Albanians and Serbs were several times in alliance against the Ottomans - , including at the 1389 Battle of Kosovo - is ignored Three centuries later, the defeat of the Austro-Hungarian empire and its allies led to mass migration and harsher conditions for Christians inside Kosovo. Henceforth the Orthodox Serbs would always be a minority in Kosovo, and Kosovo Albanians would be predominantly Muslim - albeit rather with regards to observing Ramadan and the consumption of ham or alcohol.

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Kosovo's history in Yugoslavia

As the Ottoman Empire collapsed, Kosovo was conquered by Serbia in 1912 and so - after the First World War - became part of Yugoslavia (literally 'the land of the south Slavs'). As the largest non-Slav ethnic group, Yugoslav Albanians were subject to discrimination, including confiscation of land and the prohibition of Albanian schools. In the 1920s and 1930s, the Yugoslav government tried to encourage Serb settlement in Kosovo, offering financial incentives and land. Nevertheless Albanians remained the majority population and, during the German and Italian occupation in the Second World War, drove out thousands of Serbian settlers.

Josip Broz Tito's Partisans tried to enlist Albanian support by promising Kosovo self-determination, and when this did not happen after the war, thousands of Albanians were slaughtered in the 'pacification' of Kosovo. The new Socialist Yugoslavia again introduced discriminatory policies, while in the 1950s the secret police headed by Tito's security chief Aleksandr Ranković terrorised Kosovo and thousands of Albanians were 'transferred' to live in Turkey.

The fall of Ranković in 1966 and the subsequent Yugoslav-wide process of 'decentralisation' brought Kosovo Albanians expanded educational provision in their own language as well as greater access to employment and management positions. Serbs in Kosovo continued to be better off than Albanians, but their numbers began to fall, while the number of Albanians continued to rise and the proportional difference became even greater.

When Kosovo Albanians demanded that Kosovo become a republic in the student demonstrations of 1981, this sent shockwaves throughout the socialist Yugoslavia and brought a new wave of fierce repression to Kosovo. The demand was interpreted and proclaimed by Serb nationalists as but a step towards secession; indeed many believed that Kosovo Albanians were harassing Serbs to leave Kosovo in order to prepare for this secession. Albanians subsequently became the main figure of Serbian hate propaganda. Accusations of 'cultural genocide' were accompanied by incredibly exaggerated statistics about the 'expulsion' of Serbs. From 1987 onwards, Slobodan Milosevic allied himself with this campaign, posing as the protector of Kosovo Serbs.

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Religion in Kosovo

Serbs often describe the conflict in Kosovo in religious terms, referring to Muslim domination. Albanians repeatedly stress that it is not a religious conflict - that their community does have a Muslim majority but also a significant Catholic minority and, after several decades under 'Communism', many non-believers. In the period of the non-violent struggle, Kosovo Albanians observed Western religious festivals as well as Muslim ones. In contrast, there is a mixture of hostility and respect towards the Orthodox Church. Most Kosovo Albanians are proud that Kosovo is home to historic Orthodox monasteries and that Albanians have historically guarded Serbian sacred sites. At the same time, they condemn the role played by the Orthodox Church in spreading hate propaganda about Albanians in the 1980s. Few Kosovo Albanians know that some Orthodox monasteries offered protection to Albanians in 1998-99.

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Latest Update from CrisisWatch (January 2008)

UN deadline for Kosovo status talks led by EU, U.S., Russia troika passed 10 December without Kosovo-Serbia agreement. EU leaders declared talks exhausted 14 December, discussed preparations for supervised independence based on Ahtisaari plan: agreed to prepare civil mission, 1,800-strong rule of law mission and accelerate Serbian EU membership if it cooperates with war crimes tribunal. EU-U.S. leaders reaching consensus that independence to proceed under Resolution 1244, without new UNSC resolution; Russia, Serbia claim this would be illegal. Up to 3,000 Serbs rallied Mitrovica to protest Kosovo independence and planned EU mission ahead of 19 December UNSC meeting, which again failed to yield status compromise. Post-election coalition talks started after 8 December mayoral run-off vote; Hashim Thaci’s winning Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) struck deal with President Sejdiu’s Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), offering several ministries. Tensions rose amid power cuts, food price rises and Serbian threat of embargo; Kosovo Albanians urged NATO to secure water and electricity supplies against sabotage by Serbs in north. Serbian bank targeted in blast in Dragas, southern Kosovo, 1 January.

Published at the beginning of each calendar month, CrisisWatch is produced by the International Crisis Group.

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Latest Update from CrisisWatch (September 2007)

Belgrade and Pristina negotiators met 30 August in Vienna for new round of status talks; both stipulated series of red lines ahead of meeting. PM Ceku threatened to declare independence if talks inconclusive. EU, Russian and U.S. mediators Wolfgang Ischinger, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko and Frank Wisner visited Belgrade and Pristina 10-11 August; troika to report to UNSG Ban Ki-moon by 10 December, but disagree on whether date should be deadline for resolving status. EU anti-partition stance undermined by Ischinger and Dutch FM Verhagen statements suggesting possibility if sides agreed. Ischinger later retreated; Kosovar negotiators threatened to leave talks if option raised.

UNMIK set assembly, municipal and mayoral elections for 17 November. Belgrade spokesman said return of 1,000 Serb security personnel to Kosovo, following Serbian National Council of Northern Kosovo request to Belgrade, would be timely 16 August. Belgrade alleged NATO seeking Kosovo as “satellite state”. Ethnic Serb girl raped by 3 unknown assailants 20 August in second such attack in Gracanica this year.

Published at the beginning of each calendar month, CrisisWatch is produced by the International Crisis Group.

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Resources, Links and References

Insight on Conflict is not responsible for the content of external internet sites

Amnesty International on Serbia/Kosovo - Archive of reports, news releases and action appeals for Serbia, including Kosovo.

Balkan Investigative Reporting Network - News on latest training, publication and debates, plus BIRN has produced a documentary "Kosovo: Does anyone have a plan?" exploring different perceptions on the future for Kosovo.

CARE country profile and projects in Kosovo.

European Stability Initiatives reports on Kosovo - In-depth analysis from this non-profit research and policy institute on the issues involved in promoting stability and prosperity.

Human Rights Watch on Serbia - An overview of the human rights issues in the area.

Humanitarian Law Centre - Belgrade human rights group.

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre on former Yugoslav states - Analysis and reports from an international body monitoring conflict-induced internal displacement.

International Crisis Group on Kosovo - Country profile and updates.

Kai Eide's report on Standards in Kosovo - A 2005 UN-commissioned report on the future of Kosovo written by a Norwegian diplomat.

Kosova Women's Network - A network of women’s groups and organizations from across Kosovo that advocates on behalf of women at local, regional, and international level.

Kosovan Nansen Dialogue- A non-profit organisation which aims to contribute to reconciliation and peacebuilding through inter-ethnic dialogue.

Kosovo Force (KFOR) - The NATO-led Kosovo Force which currently has approximately 16,000 troops in the region to guarantee security and stability.

OSCE Mission in Kosovo - The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is mandated with promoting human rights and the rule of law in the region.

ReliefWeb on Serbia - Information on the humanitarian situation in the region through the online vehicle of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Serbian Orthodox Church - Kosovo, Land of the Living Past.

Swisspeace's FAST Kosovo Update - The latest early warning report from the peace research institute, Swisspeace.

UNDP Kosovo Early Warning System (EWS)The EWS relies on continuous opinion poll surveys in order to provide stakeholders in Kosovo with a systematic and complex conflict monitoring system.

United Nations Office for the Special Envoy for Kosovo - Martti Ahtisaari.

UNIFEM on Kosovo.

United Nations Interim Administration Mission on Kosovo (UNMIK).

USAID on Kosovo.

Vetëvendosje - Movement for Self-Determination.

Publications and Documents

Between Serb and Albanian: A History of Kosovo, by Miranda Vickers (Christopher Hurst/Columbia University Press, 1998) - A history from medieval times.

Civil Resistance in Kosovo, by Howard Clark (Pluto, 2000) - Mainly on non-violent struggle.

Kosovo: A Short History, by Noel Malcolm (Macmillan, 1998) - Examines the historical controversies from the year dot.

Kosovo: How myths and truths started a war, by Julie Mertus (University of California Press, 1999) - Explores the contrasting perceptions of Albanians and Serbs and the widening gulf between them from 1981-1990.

Kosovo: War and Revenge, by Tim Judah (Yale University Press, 2000) - Mainly on the 1998-99 war.

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